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The Power of What We Expect. Part One: Rational Expectations

September 19, 2008

Heartfelt thanks to Kirsten Hansen, who is, like me, a member of the Employee Engagement website.  On September 5, 2008 Kirsten wrote to say we need to talk about people’s expectations because Unrealistic expectations of others can lead to much dissatisfaction both in person and professional situations

Personally, I think we don’t think much about expectations; we just have them.  I once was invited on a VIP Cruise aboard the USS Champlain, a Navy cruiser. The Navy takes both precautions and ceremonies seriously.  I was really impressed by the welcoming speech by the admiral and by the really serious precautions we practiced before we boarded the helicopter that flew us to the ship.  It all made me feel like a VIP. 

As the helicopter landed on the deck of the cruiser I saw about 15 or 20 people, all in different costumes, running toward us.  My first thought was, What a great welcome!  Thank goodness I didn’t say anything.  The people racing toward us were the safety crew in case of an accident and their “costumes” were their specialized protective gear.

Fortunately, sometimes wrong expectations are fairly harmless.

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A few months ago I went to San Francisco to visit kids and grandchildren.  Unlike mothering which involves a lot of rule-making and discipline, I think my job as a grandparent is to create optimism.  That makes it a happy task involving lot of presents and good times.  I usually find great gifts for the kids and whenever I visit I send them a whole bunch which they open as soon as I get there.  But this last time I hadn’t found any WOW! presents and didn’t have time to shop for any more.  The kids were certainly excited when they pulled off the wrapping paper…but about 10 minutes after the last gift was unwrapped, five year old Josh said, Grandma Judy, How about you don’t send any more presents but wait till you come here and Grace and I will go with you and we’ll pick them out.

Josh and his sister Grace had every reason to expect at least some of the presents to be a home run since that had been their experience four or five times a year, for as long as they could remember.  Rational expectations are a continuation of what experience and information has taught you is true.

A much more extreme response to frustration of what had been rational expectations was recently described to me by an executive in one of America’s most beloved companies.  She said the Psychological Recession rang painfully true in her company.  As they were outsourcing and laying people off, fear, stress and heavy work loads had replaced contentment, complacency and entitlement.

Despite the visibility of twenty-five years of downsizing and outsourcing, the employees of that company were not ready for any changes in the organization’s core values and value-based practices.  The corporation had a long history of job security and concern for employees’ well-being.  Despite the cost-driven changes that had been happening in many other major corporations and, even to some extent in theirs, employees’ expectations had not changed. 

Employees are our most significant asset was the key value in the majority of our most respected and admired companies from about 1950 through the 1980s and, for a few, even later.  I worked as a lecturer and consultant to IBM beginning in 1971 and continuing for about 25 years.  For most of that time, IBM was the most admired company in the world.  Its employees, like almost all the employees of the Fortune 100, were engaged with the organization, derived great pride from being part of it, and believed in the value of their work and the company’s mission. 

The companies valued hard work, education, commitment, loyalty and dedication and people with these qualities were valued, rewarded and economically secure.  In the majority of those companies, employees were also coddled, protected from negative consequences in years when revenues weren’t high, insulated from the effects of competition and the loss of customers, and in IBM’s case, secure in IBM’s famed Respect for the Individual as meaning their employment was never at risk nor was their comfortable retirement.

It is hard to convey the response of IBMers when the cuts and closings started in earnest.  Those of us who lectured in the Management Development Program often spoke in the large lecture hall at headquarters in Armonk.  Now, the room would slowly fill and as more people came and sat down the air seemed to change from clear to brownish to a deep funk.  Depression, despair, disbelief…were palpable.

What happened at IBM and H-P and the rest of the Fortune 100 or 500…was the granite rock of reality had turned to specks of sand.  There was no longer anything to grab on to or believe in.  Both the meritocracy and security were over.  Your career and your life were no longer largely under your control.  The rational expectations that had evolved from decades of experience were turned on their head.  The result was a huge loss of faith in that institution and ultimately, for many people, in institutions in general. 

To a significant extent, the Psychological Recession is the result of smashed expectations that had once been realistic and rational but were no more.  Today, with an estimated 80 percent of Americans feeling we’re on the wrong path, these feelings are not limited to veterans of our elite corporations. **

But, to keep things in perspective, expectations are not always that powerful.  Sometimes dashed expectations are not such a big deal.  I’m off to visit San Francisco soon and Josh just called with a question.  Grandma Judy, he said, will you be sending presents?  Of course, I replied, that’s my job.

** Wall Street Journal Editorial, “Barack or Hillary,”  January 11, 2008, Page A10.

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Copyright 2008 Dr.Judith Bardwick